2018 Braves ZiPs + Steamer Projections

2018 Braves ZiPs + Steamer Projections

Dan Syzmborski over at Fangraphs just released his ZiPS projections for the 2018 Atlanta Braves, meaning we now have the two main projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, available. Steamer has historically been a little more conservative in it’s projections while ZiPS a little more generous. So combining the two into one projection is usually a decent baseline for understanding the current talent level.

How much value you put in to what these systems say is obviously up to each person to decide on their own. Projection systems are historically the most accurate way to predict performance so I caution against dismissing them completely but they’re also not gospel. They’re best used as a starting point.

With that, on to the charts. I combined the two in key categories for position players and pitchers. AVG, OBP, SLG, wRC+, and WAR for hitters and K%, BB%, ERA, FIP, and WAR for pitchers. For the sake of getting something up today, I stopped at those categories and limited the breakdown to the most obvious candidates for the 25-man roster. We might do a more comprehensive list later that includes more stats and more players.

Position Players:

 

Pitchers:

 

Remember, production is based on playing time and playing time isn’t variable we fully know at this point. But there you go. That’s a rough estimate of what Atlanta’s team will do in 2018. If you’re wondering, that’s a total of 31.5 WAR which is a 78 win team.

 

1 Comments

On the other hand, if you just take ZIPS, the Braves come out as a 37 WAR team which is 84-85 wins. Even Syzmborski pegs them as a potentially contending team at 84+wins. An upgrade at COF and 3B, should make us truly competitive. A couple of FAs and adding Fried into the above mix should make this team quite formidable. The FO owes it to us to make just a few moves to make a play for a great year.

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